India hopes for a tariff deal with the US. Refinery data may help

India is negotiating tariffs with the US. A reduction in Russian oil deliveries is expected to help. And although oil purchases by Indian companies are usually reflected in monthly customs data and analyses by private research firms, the government is now asking refineries for weekly information on their purchases, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Since April last year, global trade has been shaken by Donald Trump's tariff policy. Trade wars, rising protectionism, higher inflation and the gradual reshaping of supply chains have led the World Trade Organization to forecast more or less stagnation in global trade in 2026.

India is one of the countries whose exports to the US have fallen sharply. According to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), Indian shipments to the US fell by 37.5% in four months, from USD 8.8 billion in May 2025 to USD 5.5 billion in September 2025, marking the steepest and most sustained decline this year, according to the Economic Times. GTRI says this is the result of the 50% tariffs Washington imposed on Indian goods.

Impact of Russian oil deliveries

The tariffs were originally half that level, as the US sought to reduce its trade deficit with India. But doubling the tariff rate was intended to punish India for buying Russian oil. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022, India has been the largest buyer of Russian seaborne oil. This is one reason why talks between New Delhi and Washington on a framework agreement have so far been unsuccessful.

Tighter US and European Union sanctions have already slowed the flow of Russian oil to India. According to sources and analytics firm Kpler, it fell to a three-year low of about 1.2 million barrels per day in December. That was down roughly 40% from the June peak of about 2 million barrels per day.

Reuters now reports that sources familiar with the situation in India expect Russian oil imports to fall below 1 million barrels per day, which could help secure a trade deal with Washington.

Reporting

So, although Indian refineries have not received an explicit instruction to reduce oil purchases, India is at least trying to collect data that could demonstrate a decline in deliveries.

India's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas is therefore asking refineries to provide weekly information on their imports from Russia and the US, saying the request comes from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's office.

“We want to have up-to-date and accurate data on oil imports from Russia and the US so that, if the US asks for information, we can provide verified figures rather than having to rely on secondary sources,” said one source, a government official.

Trump is known to have made energy purchases an important element of many of his trade deals. This could therefore be a meaningful step for India. In addition, the country is seeking to increase purchases of US oil after refineries there had already increased imports of US gas, industry sources told Reuters.

According to Kpler data, the US accounted for 6.6% of India's oil imports in 2025. Russia supplied 35%.