What lies ahead for the European Commission on climate in 2024

The European Commission is set to present a proposal for new climate targets for 2040 in February. The key issue in the debate is setting an ambitious enough level for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the next decade.

The newly proposed targets will be the legacy of the current Commission, as reported by Euractiv. The task of taking the new targets through the legislative process will then fall to the new executive, which will emerge from the elections in June this year.

Wopke Hoekstra, the climate commissioner, faced pressure from members of the European Parliament to commit the Commission to cutting net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040. This is in line with the recommendations of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change.

Environmental groups, including Carbon Market Watch and WWF, are calling for a net-zero emissions target, which they say is realistic and in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement. The EU could, however, face problems even in meeting its 2030 target.

Carbon removal and preventing deindustrialisation

Key stakeholders, such as the European Parliament's Committee on the Environment, support a higher target for 2040, citing the trajectory set by emissions cuts in previous years and the Paris Agreement's guidance that rich countries should achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

With such an ambitious target, the debate has shifted from emissions reductions alone to the issue of carbon removal. Advocates of this approach support the adoption of better practices for removing carbon through land use and forestry, as well as technological solutions such as direct air capture.

Industry representatives, including the European Steel Association (Eurofer) and the European Chemical Industry Council (CEFIC), emphasise the need to balance decarbonisation policies with maintaining competitiveness. The associations argue for access to competitively priced clean energy and funding solutions to support low-carbon investment, and fear that strict policies without adequate support could lead to further industrial outflow.

Next steps

The environment ministers of the EU's 27 member states will have an opportunity to discuss the 2040 plan on 16 January, when they meet for the first informal meeting of the Environment Council. After the Commission presents its proposal on 6 February, a formal exchange of views will take place at the Environment Council in March. EU heads of state will have an opportunity to weigh in on the debate at the summit on 27 and 28 June, as part of the EU's 2024–2029 Strategic Agenda, which sets the EU's priorities for the new cycle following the June EU elections.