BNetzA: Risk of gas shortages is low in a winter with normal temperatures

Germany is according to a report by its network regulator (BNetzA) much better prepared for the current winter season than for the previous one. Gas storage facilities are almost completely full. Nevertheless, the report warns that a gas shortage remains possible under highly adverse circumstances. In a winter with normal temperatures, however, the risk of a gas shortage is low.

Germany’s network regulator BNetzA examined the impact of weather, gas imports and exports, the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, and various levels of gas consumption on the country’s gas infrastructure. It prepared six scenarios in total, ranging from positive developments for Germany and the EU to a combination of adverse but still plausible circumstances.

“The situation at the start of the heating season is much better than it was last year,” BNetzA President Klaus Mueller said in a statement.

The worst-case scenario involves an extremely cold winter, such as the one in 2012, when BNetzA says average daily temperatures fell as low as -13 °C. It also assumes a complete halt to all gas supplies from Russia, reduced gas imports to Germany and increased gas exports to southeastern Europe, which would also be facing low temperatures.

In this case, a physical gas shortage of 13 TWh could occur, and storage facilities would be left at 2% of capacity by the end of March. The lowest recorded storage fill level was 14.2% in 2018. This led to a sharp rise in gas prices. Records of storage fill levels have been kept since 2011.

In three of the six scenarios examined, available gas volumes would be sufficient to ensure supplies. While the results are no cause for celebration, it is worth noting that the outlook after last winter was considerably gloomier than it is now.

If gas imports and exports remain at last year’s levels and LNG terminals are used at least 50% of their capacity, a gas shortage should not occur. Mueller added that gas savings made last season also helped: consumption was 20% lower than in previous winter seasons.

Data from Germany also confirm figures from the Czech Energy Regulatory Office (ERÚ). Actual gas consumption in October fell by 8.4% year on year. So far, weather has been favorable for the EU in this respect: the actual average monthly temperature in Czechia in October was 11.3 °C, compared with a long-term average of 8.4 °C.