Power generation emissions from the EU’s three largest emitters fell year on year

Total operational emissions from electricity generation in the EU’s three largest polluting countries—Germany, Poland and Italy—fell 4% year on year in the first three quarters of this year. However, according to a Norwegian consultancy, it was often more economically advantageous to operate coal-fired power plants rather than gas-fired plants, while weaker electricity demand from industry also contributed to the decline.

Total power generation emissions from the countries mentioned reached 148,1 mil. tCO₂e, compared with 154,7 mil. tCO₂e recorded in 2024, as data from international energy portal Montel show.

Germany remains the bloc’s largest emitter, producing 71,4 mil. tCO₂e compared with 69,1 mil. tCO₂e last year. The increase was recorded primarily in the first quarter, when emissions rose by 17% year on year.

"It is no surprise that Germany remains Europe’s largest producer of emissions, given its reliance on coal- and gas-fired generation during periods of lower renewable output, as well as for grid balancing," Bernadett Pappová, head of market analysis at Pact Capital, told Montel on Monday.

Norwegian consultancy Veyt also said that, according to its calculations, coal-fired power plants in Germany were more profitable than gas-fired plants in the first half of the year.

"Unfavourable wind conditions in Germany further contributed to output from fossil-fuel power plants," Marta Wroniszewska, Veyt’s lead EU carbon analyst, agreed with Pappová.

Given the highly variable electricity generation from solar photovoltaic or wind power plants, it can be observed that during periods of higher output, the price on day-ahead markets often falls to zero or even into negative territory. Conversely, during periods of lower output, prices rise sharply and can reach several hundred EUR/MWh.

The expected development of battery storage is intended to help equalise price differences during the day or over short periods, thereby flattening the curve. However, revenues will gradually be cannibalised in this segment as well, and industry organisations warn against unrealistic investor expectations and rapid returns on invested capital. There is no need to look far for an example—just consider the current solar PV market in the Czech Republic, where the development of large projects is already lagging, partly due to the emergence of the so-called duck curve, leading to a degree of disillusionment.

Poland, by contrast, reduced its operational emissions from electricity generation by 5% to 51,3 mil. tCO₂e, with analysts assessing the decline as evidence that Poland’s gradual energy transition towards clean energy sources is progressing.

"Poland’s 5% decline fits well with the gradual structural transformation of its energy sector," said Bernadett Pappová. Nevertheless, Poland’s very high dependence on coal persists.

Italy achieved an even larger year-on-year decline of 19%, emitting 25,3 mil. tCO₂e. However, weaker electricity demand from the industrial sector is also said to be a reason.